Description

Meteorological Background
Between 10 and 15 November, three cyclones passed over the Adriatic, driven by a wide upper-level trough in western Europe and a pronounced ridge in the east. These conditions caused persistent moderate to strong SE winds over the Adriatic. On 10 November, a cyclone developed in the western Mediterranean, deepening as it moved toward Sardinia and the Tyrrhenian Sea, intensifying SE winds over the Adriatic by 12 November, with hurricane-force gusts in some areas. The cyclone reached the Adriatic on 13 November, bringing strong gale-force winds before weakening, as the pressure gradient decreased. By 14 November, the cyclone had moved eastward, and a new cyclone developed in the Gulf of Lion, moving toward the Gulf of Genoa and northeastward. On 15 November, its stationary frontal system maintained a strong SE wind over the Adriatic.

Sea-level evolution

On 15 November, UTC, sea level in Bakar reached 92 cm above long-term mean. During this maximum, tide had semidiurnal spring-tide character, contributing 22 cm. Although sea level peaked only two days before (during another flooding episode), no obvious ~21.5-hour oscillations were present prior the flood, indicating that synoptic component was dominated by a storm surge, which contributed 14 cm.
The remaining sea-level rise resulted from processes acting on other time scales (refer to Figure 1 in the Introduction for detailed explanations). Local processes had minimal impact, adding only 5 cm, long-period sea-level variability added 24 cm, and mean sea-level changes contributed 27 cm.

In summary, the flood resulted from a combination of contributing processes, with all components—except local processes—playing significant and nearly equal roles.