Description

Meteorological background

Two days before the sea-level maximum in Bakar, a deep cyclone originating from the North Atlantic moved toward western Europe and into the European continent. This system generated a moderate Sirocco wind across the Adriatic. By 2 October, cyclonic activity intensified with the development of a secondary cyclone over Central Europe. This increased the air pressure gradient over the Adriatic, strengthening the Sirocco, which reached its peak intensity on the evening of 2 October.

Sea-level evolution

On 2 October at 20:00 UTC, the sea level in Bakar rose to 90 cm above the long-term mean. At that time, the tide exhibited a semidiurnal spring-tide pattern. However, the sea-level maximum coincided with a secondary daily tidal peak, contributing only 5 cm to the overall sea level.
In the preceding week, the Adriatic had experienced minimal cyclonic activity, meaning the flood was not influenced by pre-existing 21.5-hour seiches. As a result, synoptic component was dominated by a storm surge. This storm surge, driven by the intensified air pressure gradient and the strong Sirocco winds, reached its peak just before the sea-level maximum and contributed 45 cm to the total height.

The remaining sea-level rise resulted from processes acting on other time scales (refer to Figure 1 in the Introduction for detailed explanations). Local processes contributed an exceptional 20 cm, long-period sea-level variability added 9 cm, and mean sea-level changes added 11 cm.

In summary, this flood was the result of a constructive superposition of all components,  with significant contributions from both synoptic and local processes.