In the days leading up to the flood, a deep upper-level trough extended from northern Scandinavia to Africa, bringing southwesterly winds and warm, humid air to the Mediterranean. On 23 November, a deep upper-level cyclone formed over the western Mediterranean, leading to a surface cyclone over Spain that moved northeastward across Europe. This intensified air-pressure gradients, strengthening southerly and southeasterly winds over the Adriatic, especially in the eastern part of the basin. The Sirocco wind intensified on 24 November, reaching severe intensity, accompanied by heavy rain in coastal areas. Wind speeds peaked just before the extreme sea level was recorded in Bakar at 21:00 UTC.
Sea-level evolution
On 24 November 1987, at 22:00 UTC, Bakar’s sea level rose to 90 cm above the long-term mean. The sea-level peak occurred during the tide’s transition from negative to positive phase, contributing only 5 cm to the total sea level. Before the flood, the Adriatic region experienced no significant cyclonic activity, therefore no seiches were present in the basin, hence, synoptic component mainly consisted of a storm surge, which contributed 48 cm to the overall maximum.
The remaining sea-level rise resulted from processes acting on other time scales (refer to Figure 1 in the Introduction for detailed explanations). Local processes contributed 4 cm, long-period sea-level variability added 23 cm, and mean sea-level changes added 10 cm.
In summary, this flood was the result of a constructive superposition of all components, with significant contribution from synoptic component.